Think this race sets up brilliantly for Trap For Fools to record his first win in Victoria, with the ex-WA galloper capable of dictating proceedings from the front here; as long as nothing sacrifices themselves to take him on, then he should have plenty in the tank to hold off the challengers late.
Not only does the map look great, but he's building to a win and brings the right form into this after a gallant effort behind possible Cups contender Sixties Groove over this course and distance a fortnight ago. Trap for Fools looks set to be right at his peak at his fourth run back.
He's got a touch of class about him and with the favours I can see him getting in the run, he should justify the favouritism he holds.
AROUND THE GROUNDS
Impavido really should have won more than one race by now but, alas, that debut victory in a maiden at Kembla Grange remains his lone win. It's not through a lack of ability, he's definitely got some talent. But he's raced out of his grade on plenty of occasions and when he's been in a very winnable race, he's unfortunately just found one or two better on the day.
That was the case last start when he looked a huge chance to claim his second win, but Sparky Lad just packed too many punches late; perhaps Impavido just died on his run somewhat, too. But what it did prove is that the horse in good form and although he goes up in grade for this, he does drop to the limit and has put in some of his best efforts over the Randwick mile, including a fourth in a Randwick Guineas.
I think with that light weight Tim Clark might press forward on the Bjorn Baker gelding, and try and sit behind the potential leading duo of Gresham and Coonawarra. If he can get that type of soft run, he can finally wrack up win number two.
A full sister to Godolphin's multiple group-placed two-year-old Veranillo, Multaja's debut victory at Werribee in early April was certainly one that made me take notice. And I think the Blue Army might have another very smart filly on their hands here.
She did it as she liked that day, easily could have won by more than the eventual winning margin of three-and-a-half lengths; the manner in which she went about her business was extremely impressive.
She returns here in a pretty hot race I'll admit and draws very wide, but that might work to her advantage because I can see a heap of speed engaged here. Dwayne Dunn might be able to just sit in the second half of the field, stay to the outside and get Multaja circling from the 500m. If she's within a few lengths of the leaders as they swing that Valley corner, I can see her zooming late and looking like a real stakes class filly.
He's a little bit enigmatic, Shogun Sun. He's certainly a horse blessed with a decent level of ability, but he has the odd trait that prohibits him from always performing his best.
That was sort of the case at the Sunny Coast at his last start a few weeks ago where he hung under pressure when popped the question. In fairness, he'd been wide and midfield in a slowly run race.
The start before he put it all together with a powerful win at the same track, easily accounting for Pressway who has won nicely since, and prior to that he'd been going fairly well in very good company.
Being a Class 6, set weights race, he does look extremely well in with just 54.5 kilos; he's drawn perfectly to get a smoother midfield. With what looks like a fair bit of speed engaged, I can see him getting his chance to get over the top of them late as long as he comes to track with his A-game.
OVER THE ODDS
Three Sheets is what you'd call a good old-fashioned open-class galloper from the country, and in an offseason race like the one he has on Saturday he's more than capable of playing a big part in the finish.
His best trip is the five furlongs, not that he's a flying machine, but what he can do is find his feet early back in the field, and as long as he doesn't completely get run off his feet, he's got a quality finish on him with a short burst of acceleration, that doesn't always translate to a longer journey.
He hasn't won for more than two years, and that's a justifiable concern for anyone backing him. But his racing pattern doesn't lend itself to a high-winning strike-rate anyway, and there's no doubt he needs the race run to suit. I reckon he gets that here on the weekend; he's already won two from four over the 1000 metres at Randwick, and I thought he was pretty good the other day behind Bandipur in the wrong part of the track.
He's a massive chance here and that current $16 quote will be getting a bit of my hard earned that's for sure.
Leg 1 - 1,3,4,5,6,8
Leg 2 - 2,3,4,10
Leg 3 - 4,8,9,10
Leg 4 - 5,6,8
($100 = 34.72%)
Leg 1 - 1,2,4,8
Leg 2 - 5,11,12
Leg 3 - 3
Leg 4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,12
($100 = 104.17%)
TAB EARLY MARKET MOVERS & BIG BETS
Randwick Race 1 - Lions Head $15 - $10 ($500 @ $11)
Race 3 - Raqeeq $3 - $2.50 ($1,250 @ $3)
Race 4 - Sweet Victory $4.80 - $3.60 ($800 @ $4.20, $800 @ $3.90)
Race 6 - Bella Vella $18 - $10 ($700 @ $12, $500 @ $12, $500 @ $11) Race 7 - Kementari $2 - $1.95 ($3,250 @ $2, $1,000 @ $2, $1,000 @ $1.95)
Race 8 - Island Missile $4.60 - $2.80 ($1,200 @ $3.70, $2,000 @ $2.90)
Race 9 - Wanna Get A What $11 - $7.50 ($600 @ $10, $536 @ $10, $700 @ $9.50, $500 @ $9)
Race 1 - All In Brawl $4.60 - $3.10 ($500 @ $4.60, $500 @ $3.40, $1,000 @ $3.20)
Race 3 - Causeway Girl $4.60 - $3.60 ($500 @ $3.70)
Race 5 - Streets Of Avalon $4.20 - $3.90 ($700 x $2,400 @ $4.20/$1.90)
Race 7 - Another Coldie $5.50 - $3.80 ($1,000 @ $3.80)
Race 8 - Trap For Fools $4.60 - $2.80 ($500 @ $4.20, $500 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3.20, $500 @ $3, $1,500 @ $2.80)
Race 9 - Lord Barrington $15 - $11 ($600 @ $11)