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Surprise: Expect twists ahead in the playoff race

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Franklin sounds off after loss to Ohio State (2:03)

James Franklin explains how upset he is after Penn State's loss and that the team will no longer be comfortable with its status. (2:03)

Mayhem is coming -- and Allstate didn't even pay me to write that.

The first few weeks of the college football season have been awfully chalky. Wisconsin lost to BYU, yes. Miami and Auburn fell to LSU. But none of the main contenders have dropped out. The six teams most likely to make the playoff now were among the top seven entering the preseason (only Washington fell out), per ESPN's Playoff Predictor.

And October features plenty of easy opportunities for top contenders. Just look at who Alabama (at Arkansas, Missouri, at Tennessee) or Ohio State (Indiana, Minnesota, at Purdue) has coming up. But I'm here to tell you there will be an October surprise in college football.

Among the Big Six (Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma), there is a 92 percent chance that at least one of those teams will drop a game this month -- and they each play only three. Want to remove Oklahoma, which has some trickier contests, against Texas and TCU, this month? That's fine: There's still an 85 percent chance the other five will have at least one loss among them. Maybe more.